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Prediction for CME (2023-05-09T19:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-05-09T19:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/25050/-1
CME Note: Large halo CME seen in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. Source is M4.2 flare from AR13296. Large EUV wave and dimming seen across the disk in SDO/AIA 193 and 171. ARRIVAL SIGNATURES at L1 and STEREO A, confirmed by LASSOS team as shock and iCME. -L1: 2023-05-12T05:48Z. Arrival signature is likely the CME shock arrival characterized by an abrupt jump of magnetic field to over 13 nT and of solar wind speed from 480 km/s to 560 km/s accompanied by the jump in ion temperature and density and some rotation of magnetic field components. -STEREO: 2023-05-12T01Z Arrival is signified by a sudden increase in Btotal to 13 nT, accompanied by an increase in solar wind speed to 900 km/s and an increase in ion density. No temperature data is available). The arrival at STEREO A is unexpectedly several hours before the CME arrival at L1.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-05-12T05:48Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.37

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-05-11T20:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 8.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

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# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE  from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)         #
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A partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was first observed in the LASCO/C2 chronograph imagery around 19:00 UTC on May 09. The CME was associated with an M4.2 flare from NOAA AR 3296, with peak time 18:58 UTC. The majority of the CME is directed to the north west, but a full halo shock is visible. A preliminary analysis suggests an estimated arrival at Earth on May 11, a full analysis is ongoing.
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# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium                #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium                                       #

Lead Time: 40.02 hour(s)
Difference: 9.80 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M Office) on 2023-05-10T13:47Z

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